Are you feeling the impact of the housing market? Greg Holmes and Tara Lyons of Surrey BS, Belleville ON are here to discuss the current state of the housing market and what it means for you. In this video, we'll discuss the latest housing statistics, including the fact that house prices have dropped by 57 %. We'll also discuss the strategies you can use to stay ahead of the market and make sure you're not affected by the downturn. So if you're looking for the latest information on the housing market, this video is for you!
Transcript:
Tara Lyons: [00:00:00] Hi, I'm Tara Lyons of Team Tara Lyons with Royal Lepage, and I am so excited to have this guest on with us today. Meet the awesomeness of Greg Holmes and Greg, what market do you do?
Greg Holmes: We live out west. We live in Surrey, BC which is in the Fraser Valley region of the lower mainland We're about, half an hour drive from the beautiful city of Vancouver.
Yes.
Tara Lyons: And it is a beautiful city, but I have to tell you, Whistler was stunning.
Greg Holmes: We're very blessed that we're about two and a half hours from Whistler. I think it's one of those places that you always wish you could go more often. Life gets in the way and life gets busy, and when you do make the trek out, we often realize how fortunate we are that it's in our own backyard.
Tara Lyons: So you know what? It's the same as for us, for those that maybe are watching this for the first time. I am from Belleville, Ontario, and I cover CFB Trenton, lots of military moves. , but also we have the [00:01:00] beautiful Prince Edward County and it's the same thing.
It's in our back door, right? We have of course Lake Ontario, but we have the Bay of Quinte and we now are known for wine country. Tom knows Surrey quite well and I know Mission, which isn't too far away, I don't think, from Surrey . We have some of our closest friends that live out there but I haven't made it to Surrey yet, so I'm looking forward to doing that trip when I come out to visit you guys.
Greg Holmes: It's a bedroom community, right? It's about a half an hour from the city, the whole Fraser Valley which extends basically from Surrey right out to Mission, Abbotsford and Chilliwack. As you're heading out of Vancouver, towards the mountains as if you're heading east, you go through these beautiful communities.
There's the Fraser River. The mountains are all fairly close. There's skiing the recreation, the further east you go. Into the mountains and lakes. We got the border on one side, which is just reopened again, so we're now able to go across the line again, nice to these states, we love it where we live and even if we don't even make it.
To downtown Vancouver. [00:02:00] There's so much right in her own backyard, so
Tara Lyons: Oh yeah. Yeah. And it's gorgeous countryside out there, and you do not know this, but Fraser is my mother's maiden name and a lot of the Fraser River and a lot of places out there were named after people from her background. Wow.
Greg Holmes: Wow. Yeah, so that's a whole other story,
That's right. There's a lot of Frasers out here. There's a Fraser River, the Alex Fraser Bridge. My old school, Simon Fraser University, so yeah, Simon Fraser.
Tara Lyons: It's so long. Peter Simon Fraser and Simon Peter Fraser brothers. . Fun fact, it is . So of course, what we're doing here on this podcast is letting people know what's happening across the country because things that are happening from one end to the other affect us in the middle.
And of course we're seeing a changing market here in Ontario. What's happening out there? Are you seeing an increase, a decrease, a general overall of what your market's doing?
Greg Holmes: It's not dull. Let's say that. Obviously we're heading into a slower season right [00:03:00] now and listings are down. Sales are down. Everything is down this time compared to last year. Last year the market was at a very frantic pace out here. , it was a seller's market.
There was little inventory and whatever inventory there was, was flying off the shelves in multiple offers in almost every situation and not just one or two offers, right? Like we were seeing 10, 20, 30 plus offers on homes which lasted until the market shifted, we noticed in the Fraser Valley here, we noticed the shift seemed to be earlier than other parts of the lower mainland.
We noticed a shift that started in February. We could see a shift was happening even before that first interest rate bump of March. Yeah. And throughout the year we've seen the market slow down. Sales have come down, and sales prices have come down throughout the year.
Tara Lyons: It's interesting now in our Quinte area, we haven't [00:04:00] seen the ups and downs that some places have for the last few years.
Even with Covid, there's, Alberta was hit like they were down instead of being up the way that we were for a good majority of the last couple years, and then they saw the increases. But we've been a pretty steady increase since about 2017. , and that's just because the GTA in Toronto area discovered us.
We saw of course a decrease over November of last year as well. We've seen probably about a 12% decrease fewer sales November compared to November of this year.
And of course we're seeing an increase in number of days. So we went from flying off the shelf on average about seven days because we made it that many days. And then now we're at about an average of 50 days on market for this past November. Yeah.
Greg Holmes: Just to put that into some perspective .
So our sales are down this month compared to last month. They're down about 7% again time of year has some play in that. But when we look at our year over year sales, we're down 57% in sales.
Yeah. So that is a huge number of sales that have [00:05:00] disappeared. What we haven't seen is the listings surge, and we might chat about that. Our listings are, obviously, they're coming down. But we still have supply issues, there's still a shortage of supply.
Good product is hard to find.
Tara Lyons: That is a big difference to here really, because we are, yeah.
So right now, just in Belleville, our little pocket, we have 96 listings residential only. But I can tell you when I was doing searches for people last year, we would have less than a dozen and quite often we'd have five or six.
So it's a huge change what we've seen in number of listings. Yeah, and it's interesting because our price range we are still seeing some multiple offers in certain price ranges, which is a little scary to say cause I don't want people to think that they're gonna wind up in multiple offer situations.
But given the right condition of the home and the price range of it in location, you may still see that.
Greg Holmes: I think that's a really good point. I think no matter in what market you're dealing, even if it's a down market, even in a [00:06:00] buyer's market, if you've got a a well-priced property Yeah.
That is we'll call it a cream puff, right? A cream puff listing where it is a it shows really well, it's in a great area. It, you could absolutely find yourself in a multiple offer situation. Even just before Christmas even just after a snow dump . There is always that possibility because there's always buyers that are looking for, the right home for them.
And
Tara Lyons: that's a really good point because people, when you're reading the news today and you're hearing the markets down 25% and this and that, and everything's negative, people always have to. Yeah. Yeah. There's always reasons why people are moving, right? They're retiring, the kids have gone off to school, they're having babies, they've outgrown their houses, they've done a job change.
And so it's having these conversations and being able to explain to them what's actually happening, and don't be fearful to put your home on the market if this is the right time for you to do that.
Greg Holmes: We always talk about that as cause people, it's a common question.
[00:07:00] How's the market doing? Is it a good time for me to sell? It really depends on their individual situation. Yes. And at the end of the day you can never time the market. , if you're waiting for the market to be at its peak, you might be waiting at a long time. Yeah. So if it's the right time, it's the time for you as your family unit.
You're gonna sell, in the same market as what you buy in. Yeah. And to your point about, the market conditions, if some people are fearful, there's also others that are looking at that as a opportunity.
We have an investor client looking to pick up a condo a future opportunity for their children. But in the meantime, it would be the, an investment less than two weeks ago. And there were five offers on it. So there were other likely other investors looking at that opportunity.
And while we have a bunch of clients that are sitting on the sidelines, not ready to make a move, they're waiting for the market to hit the bottom. , others are looking at it as an opportunity to get in now because they're wondering [00:08:00] maybe we're already at the bottom and we don't realize it.
Tara Lyons: And that's actually a great lead in to the next discussion. And that is what's the production for 2023? Wow. What, do you want me to go first or would you like
Greg Holmes: to go first? Sure. I would love to hear your prediction.
Tara Lyons: So our prediction for our area, and you have to remember, we are this community that just was that sleepy community as well that people discovered and we've seen such massive growth.
That it had to come down as well at some point. And yet we are still in a housing shortage, even though I know I've mentioned that we have more homes on market, but it's actually a good thing because we're seeing conditions come into offers more now, which is amazing. I'm so happy to see that . It's a much better balanced market that we're in.
And yes, the interest rates have been a little bit of a drag when they first come out. They come out, they slow things down, and then things pick up again, and we saw that October's came out and it slowed down in November, picked up again.
But our prediction is that if anybody, and this [00:09:00] is what I tell anybody who's looking to buy right now, my thoughts are you're going to have maybe until mid spring, maybe late spring. , and that's my projection for the low market in our area. And then we're gonna see it increase again for the sheer fact that the fear is gonna be gone for people.
We've seen the massive increases in our interest rates now. And by the way, if anybody's out there waiting for interest rates to come down to what they've been over the last couple years. Get that outta your head, that's not gonna happen because those were just so low for so long. We're now in a more balanced interest rate as well.
Greg Holmes: Yeah. I think those sentiments are echoed, out here as well, the interest rates have gone up so quickly. Like I said, 57% sales down in a year. It's hard to say. We can't predict how inflation is so many economic factors. My head is gonna explode with economic information that I never thought I was interested in a year ago.
Now I look forward to the inflation data. I feel like a yes. Like an economics geek, all of a sudden I'm learning all [00:10:00] about this. I love it. Yes. But I think what, what's gonna happen is at some point we're gonna hit a plateau. I feel like it's coming. I feel the last few interest rate bumps have been a little lower than they were earlier in the fall and summer.
So I, I have a feeling like we're getting closer to that seems to be the general consensus, but of course we don't know for sure. And then if we hit that plateau, I think over time, Those people are going to say, okay, the world's not falling right? , the prices aren't crashing.
Yes, they've corrected and we've seen out in the outer areas of the Fraser Valley. We've seen some of the steepest declines in house prices in Mission in Abbotsford and Chilliwack. We've seen over 20% price decline. in detached houses. So are we at the bottom? Are we close? There's opportunity out there right now for people because there are so many people on the sidelines.
That fear, just like you said, is going to back off. [00:11:00] People are going to say, okay, there seems to be some stability here, right? Both on interest rates, cuz there's uncertainty about the variable and how much will my payments be, but also about the prices, right?
Tara Lyons: The point that we need to remember here is with those decreases, don't forget about the increases that we saw, because that's the biggest thing that's out there in the news is everybody saying, oh, it's down the 20% or 25%, or for us, 12%.
But you have to remember what we came up and what we came up so quickly, and we're not gonna get into all of that today, but please give Greg or myself a call if you're in these areas or other areas. We can talk to you about other areas too and point you in the right direction.
So if you bought three years ago, You've seen amazing increases in both markets, and you're still gonna have a nice paycheck at the end of the day from your home. So it's really dependent, and I know, Greg, you mentioned it earlier, what is [00:12:00] your family situation? And we look at. All of that for you when you purchased it.
What are you going to, what is your move? What is your reasoning behind it? And we help you make those decisions so to, so that it's the right financial decision for you.
Greg Holmes: Yeah, Tara? You're bang on time in or I actually know what you mean is better than timing the market. Yes. You can never predict it if you look out here. We've had about 40 to 45% growth in price three years ago. Yeah. We've seen the prices come down a bit this year, but like I said, if you've been in the market for a while, if you found that home that you can see yourself in for several years, you're going to do well.
Yeah. It's proven over and over again. It's just one of those things, right?
Tara Lyons: I have to tell you, I've really enjoyed this. Thank you so much. Do you have anything else you wanna add?
Greg Holmes: No. Tara, it's always lovely to get perspective from other parts of the country.
I always find it very interesting to find how other communities are doing that aren't just the big three. Not just Toronto. Montreal Vancouver, so [00:13:00] it's always interesting to hear what other communities big and small are doing across the country.
Tara Lyons: It's true and I wanna let everybody know we're gonna be putting Greg's and my information as well below. So if you wanna contact , either one of us please feel free to, and thank you. I really appreciate your time and sharing the info on your area so everybody can learn about it.
Greg Holmes: Tara's Absolutely my pleasure.
It's always great to get the chance to speak with.