Tom and Tara are in the car with Joe this week for Tour Tuesday, going through the July numbers for Belleville and the surrounding area, plus a few local things worth your weekend.
The July market, in plain terms
Activity came down in July. That is not a warning sign, it is the calendar. July and August are always quieter around here. Pricing eased again as well, and we are not surprised by that either.
Here is the part that matters. We think we are almost at the bottom. Not calling it to the day, but we can see it from here, and that is a very different conversation than the one we were having a year ago. If you want the numbers for a specific neighbourhood or price range, ask us. We have the stats for every area, not just the city average.
Interest rates held, and they have stopped falling
Rates held again this cycle. What people miss is the second half of that sentence: they are not dropping anymore either. So if your plan has been to wait for another cut before you buy, look honestly at the evidence. There is no sign one is coming soon.
Everybody wants to buy at the bottom. We are telling you right now, we are here.
Why a soft market is the right time to move up
This is the one most people talk themselves out of. Selling into a soft market feels bad because you are not getting what you think your home is worth. Fair enough. But run the whole trade, not half of it.
Ten percent off a $500,000 home is $50,000. Ten percent off a $1,000,000 home is $100,000. When you are moving up, the discount on the purchase is bigger than the discount on your sale. On top of that, entry level homes in our market have held their value better than the higher end, so the gap is working in your favour twice.
If you are building a portfolio, this is your market
Prices are down and rents are strong, which is exactly the combination investors look for. It does not have to be a big building either. A duplex, a fourplex, or a single family home you rent out all work, and at current rents you can essentially break even in Belleville.
We saw a sixplex listed at a million recently. A few years ago that would have been unheard of. It is also why investors from larger centres keep buying here. The rents they can achieve are comparable to Toronto in places, and buyers get considerably more space for the money.
The mindset that helps: you do not have to time the market perfectly. You just have to time the trend, and the trend right now is low.
New builds, the HST rebate and development charges
The HST rebate on new builds is back, and that one applies across our whole area. Separately, we expect a decision this Friday on development charges in Belleville, which could mean another break for anyone building new. If that lands, the math on a new build gets noticeably more attractive.
Joe is our guy on new builds. If you have any question at all about the process, the incentives, or which builders are worth a look, send it to him.
Free summer nights at Zwick’s Park
If you have not been down to the Lions Pavilion at Zwick’s Park, you are missing one of the genuinely good free things in this city. The Belleville Lions Club runs live music there through the summer and the whole thing costs nothing. Bring a lawn chair, set up under the pavilion or out on the grass, and enjoy it.
Pick up the schedule from the little log cabin at Front and Moira, which is our Chamber of Commerce. August 9 has Dave Bush and the River Valley Riders on the bill.
Our own version of this: grab a sub, bring the dog, and go have lunch at the park. It is the best view in the city for the price.
A note for city council
We miss the pop-ups at Zwick’s. They drew people down to the water and you could feel the difference in how busy it was. Quinte West has done theirs really well and they are busy all the time. If there is any way to bring them back, it is worth another look.
One Eyed Jack at the Memorial Market Place
We finally have to talk about One Eyed Jack on Market Street. Third time we have been and the food and the service have been good every time. The place has been hopping.
The bigger story is the Memorial Market Place itself, the old Memorial Arena reborn as a retail and food hub. There is a fish market, a beer market on the way, an Indian restaurant, and a ceramics spot, with more units under construction. Downtown is getting better and this corner of it is a big reason why.
If your mortgage renewal is keeping you up at night
This is the most important thing in this week’s video.
There are a lot of people right now whose mortgages are coming due and who cannot see how the new payment works. If that is you, please call us before it turns into a crisis. Do not assume you are going to lose your home or that you are already behind the eight ball.
We have seen essentially every version of this situation. We know the conversations to have with the banks, with the brokers, and with other agents. It might feel unique and completely overwhelming to you. For us it is something we work through regularly. We have helped people out from under this with very little loss, and quite often with none at all.
It is a hard stretch in the economy, in Canada and in Ontario especially. You do not have to navigate it alone, and an early conversation gives you far more options than a late one.
What did you get up to on the long weekend?
Tell us in the comments. And if you want the July stats for your specific area, or you are weighing a move and want a straight answer about the timing, reach out anytime.